Michael Berry: In the second half of the year, the Fed will cut interest rates to save the economy, prompting inflation to soar again
Michael Burry, the protagonist of the movie “Big Short” and a well-known hedge fund manager who shorted real estate mortgage-backed securities before the outbreak of the global financial tsunami in 2008, predicted that the U.S. economy may collapse this year (2023). In the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates.
Berry said via Twitter on the 2nd that inflation has peaked, but it will not be the last of this cycle. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to decline, perhaps turning negative in the second half of 2023, and the US will also fall into recession. The Fed will cut interest rates and the government will try to stimulate the economy. Afterwards, inflation will spike again, which is not hard to foresee.
Berry said via Twitter on September 7, 2022 that inflation always rises and falls suddenly. Inflationary pressure began to cool down after the surge, because the nature of inflation is like this, not the relationship between Biden or Powell. Inflation will ease, fool everyone, and then reappear. When inflation reappears, neither the President of the United States nor the Fed will be held accountable.
The U.S. CPI annual growth rate soared to a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, and remained above 7% in November, far exceeding the 2% target set by the Fed.
In order to combat inflation, the Fed raised the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.50% in mid-December 2022, a 15-year high. In early 2022, interest rates were originally close to zero. The Fed predicts that interest rates will peak above 5% in 2023.
Business Insider reported that Berry had warned in April 2020 that the restart of the U.S. economy after the epidemic could lead to higher inflation. He also said in 2022 that U.S. households have reduced monthly savings and increased debt, and may exhaust almost all their savings in December, triggering a decline in consumer spending and the risk of a long-term economic recession.
What are the consequences of not solving problems with customers?
You probably already have one in mind.
The economic repercussion of not managing problems with clients properly is very worrying for all of us, agencies and freelancers can be affected by it.
The customer experience with us will also affect us at the branding level; if it is bad, our reputation is in danger of falling and the bigger the client, the more it will affect us.
The most common consequences of problems with clients that I have experienced are these four:
1.- Loss of customers
Many freelancers do not have business experience and it is difficult for them to face these inconveniences, my recommendation is not to hide from them and face them.
Perhaps at first you say phrases at inappropriate times, but I assure you that it also happens to those of us who have been dealing with clients for more than 20 years.
Cheer up, with practice you gain ease.
2.- Economic losses
Obviously, if you lose customers, your pocket will notice.
This may not be dramatic for you, if your finances are healthy, but for those who are self-employed it can be a big hole in their monthly income.
3.- Deterioration of your reputation
You already know that a negative opinion spreads faster than a positive one.
So that they speak well of you, address and attack customer problems as soon as possible, we don’t always have a magic wand that solves them.
4.- Possible discussions with your colleagues and collaborators
When working as a team and the development of a project depends on several people, a human reaction is not to recognize our share of responsibility.
How to solve a problem with a client: 10 tips
What can we do to mediate, confront and solve problems that arise with clients?
Here are 10 tips to help you overcome these pitfalls that hurt our morale and, sometimes, our pockets.
- Identify the problem
To find out what is happening, the first thing you should do is listen .
Do not anticipate what your client wants to tell you, do not imagine what he is thinking, do not cut him off while he is speaking, do not make negative gestures with your facial or body expression.
Just listen to him.
And when he’s done, give a short summary for him to confirm that you’ve understood.
- Starting from there, it would not be unusual for him to have interpreted something different from what we have said.
A typical example for many clients is to consider the number of fans on Facebook as a key indicator to measure success on Social Networks.
However, we know that for many projects it is not relevant, although we must always keep an eye on it.
- Check the expectations that the client has about the results of our action
The previous section leads us to think about the expectations that customers have about how we invest their money.
I mean the campaigns we run in Social Ads.
A few days ago, an agency colleague told me that she had had a difference with her client over this issue.
- Identify since when the discrepancy with the client exists
Knowing this temporary data tells us how entrenched problems with customers can be.
If it is recent, it will be easier to manage than if it has been in the head of our interlocutor for a long time.
- Show empathy
There are times when customers are difficult to deal with because they have a lot of pressure on your company.
- Highlight positive aspects
Above all, do not deny the evidence or reality.
If the reports of results say that the Social Media Strategy that you have designed does not reach the objectives, do not disguise it or deny it.
However, if an onslaught of customer anger or frustration hits you, resolve it by showing what you’ve accomplished.
Also, highlight what you have learned when you see unwanted results, if you are skilled and a good professional, you know that to err is to grow and learn.
- Acknowledge your own mistakes
If the error is yours or your team’s, show humility and provide solutions.
Your client likes you to do it for two reasons:
- Praise your professionalism.
- Boost your ego.
Communicate to him the actions you take to correct these deviations and inform him regularly of how the measures adopted are going.
- Look for solutions in a group
If there are problems with clients, it is because you bill every month, so when they appear, calm down.
It would be worse not to invoice, after having understood what is happening, gather your project team and try to find solutions together.
- Write understandable reports
I had a professor at the university who said: “There are some authors who write books so that others know that they know something.”
Do not make your reports the reason we can apply this sentence to you.
Your client needs to understand what goes right, what goes wrong, and why.
- Create a shared document with the client to reflect the evolution of the project
It is about creating a document that is accessed by both parties, for example, in Google Drive.
It reflects the status of the progress we have made with the marketing actions we implement.
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