The coronavirus, which first sickened people in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has resulted in an ongoing pandemic. And is assumed to possess passed from animals to humans, like many similar pathogens, but nothing has been confirmed yet by any peer-reviewed research project, global public health agency or academic expert. Beyond that, little is understood about its origin.Although finding the source wouldn’t necessarily help scientists develop vaccines or other direct treatments, it could provide crucial pieces of knowledge on how it emerged and evolved. And scientists are using lessons learned from previous outbreaks to grasp a way to approach this one.
The first confirmed case was followed until 17 November 2019. As of June 19, 2020, more than 9 million cases were reported in 188 countries and territories, resulting in more than 452,000 deaths.
Common symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and loss of smell and taste. While the majority of cases end in mild symptoms, some achieve acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) possibly precipitated by multi-organ failure, septic shock, and blood clots. The time from exposure to onset of symptoms is often around five days, but may range from two to 14 days. The virus spread among humans primarily through small droplets produced during close contact, mostly produced by coughing, sneezing and speaking.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey, the first official announcement of a Covid-19 case was on 11 March after a man who had returned to Turkey from Europe, tested positive. The first death in the country occurred on 15 March 2020 and by 1 April, it was confirmed that COVID-19 had spread all over Turkey. On June 18, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases in the country was over 184,000, of which 156,000 recovered and 4,900 died. On April 18, 2020, the total number of positive test results surpassed that of Iran, making it the highest in the Middle East. The rapid increase of the confirmed cases in Turkey failed to overburden the general public healthcare system and therefore the preliminary case-fatality rate remained lower compared to several European countries.
Curfews were declared in 30 metropolitan and Zonguldak provinces on 11-12 April, 18-19 April, 23-26 April, 1-3 May, 8-9 May and 16-19 May. However, most factories were exempted from curfews. It was announced that a curfew in all 81 provinces of Turkey will be implemented 4days on 23-26 May, which covers the feast following Ramadan Measures related to the month of Ramadan, which started on April 24, were also announced to the public. According to the Ministry of Interior’s circular dated April 22, events such as iftar and sahur were not organized and iftar tents were not set up. The shopping malls that meet the required criteria have been reopened as of May 11. The hygiene measures to be followed in these shopping centers were announced by the Ministry of Health.
1.2.Definition of Undenatured Ethyl Alcohol (HS220710)
Our product is UndenaturedEthyl Alcohol.It’s HS cod is 220710.In this study the aim is to investigate the effect of COVID-19 on ethyl alcohol. Ethyl Alcohol is a very important organic solvent, widely utilized in medicine, coating, sanitary products, cosmetics, oil and other industry .Ethyl Alcohol made up of Grain Molasses and Cassava. Ethyl alcohol, also called ethonal , grain alcohol, or alcohol, a member of a class of organic compounds that are given the general name alcohols; its chemical formula is C2H5OH.
Ethanol is an important industrial chemical.It is the most common monohydric alcohol. It is used as a solvent, in the synthesis of other organic chemicals, and as an additive to automotive gasoline.A volatile colorless transparent liquid with low toxicity; liquid cannot be drunkdirectly.Have a special aroma and a rather stimulating spicy taste. Ethanol is also the intoxicating ingredient of many alcoholic beverages such as beer, wine, and distilled spirits.Flammable, its vapor can form explosive mixture with air;miscibility with water; Soluble in ethyl ether, chloroform, glycerol, methanol and other organic solvents.
After the corona virus that releases seen in Turkey was an increase in cologne and ethyl alcohol products. One tradesman said that 50 percent increase in cologne with ethyl alcohol. Sales are reported to have increased by 80 percent overall.
2.RCA Analysis of the Undenatured Ethyl Alcohol in 2001-2019
UndenatureEthyl Alcohol have always releaved comparative advantage in international markets between 2001 and 2019 because RCA always below amount of 1.The product is not seen in international competitiveness.There is a fluctuating in the table during the period of 2001 and 2019. When the in 2007 is rising, in 2009 is decreasing.RCA is increasing radically in 2010 and decreasing to less than 0.10 in other years. Before Covid-19 in 2019, RCA is still under the low amount.
According to Figure 2, when Turkey Total Export amount was 31.333.944,00 in 2001, this amount increased to 171.098.411,00 in 2019. Turkey Undenatured Ethyl Alcohol Export amount is fluctuated as the RCA. In 2010, this amount was the highest one and the in 2003 was the lowest. Before Covid-19 in 2019, Turkey Export was stable in this sector.
According to Figure 3, when World Total Export amount was 6.127.467.709,00 in 2001, this amound increased to 18.739.914.099,00in 2019. World Undenatured Alcohol Export amount has the positive increasing. Before Covid-19 in 2019, World Export was stable in this sector.
This table was created according to the Undenatured Ethyl Alcohol export countries of Turkey. There are 5 different countries have to examine. Cyprus import of World amount is 3.785,00 and Turkeyamount is 232. Share of Import from Turkey amount is 6%. Iraq World amount is 1.528 and Turkey amount is 112, so share amount is 7%. Algeria World amount is 769 and Turkey amount is 90. Oman World amount is 159, Turkey amount is 1 and share amount is 1%. Iran World amount is 286 and Turkey amount is 103 and share amount is the highest in %36. World total amount is 6.673.233 and Turkey total amount is 580. Turkey can choose Iran as a target market because Turkey’s share amount is bigger than others.
3.Effect of Covid-19 on the Undenatured Ethyl Alcohol
Covid-19, which has become a national crisis and deeply affected the economy, offered the opportunity to expand in some sectors. During this period when medical resources were insufficient, medical machinery manufacturers, medical plastic manufacturers and chemical industry took their share of expansion. However, countries with insufficient production capacity started to import these products. One of these products was ethyl alcohol. In our country, that sufficient production line has provided an active role aldı.covid-19 process of seeking to remedy the resulting disinfectant revealed the start of the government of Turkey’s economy ministry manufacturer to business and employment opportunities in both the foreign markets in the domestic market.
The abundance of sugar beet which is one of the ethyl alcohol raw materials in our country eliminated the concerns of the producers. While there was no problem in production and distribution in the domestic market, it was also easy for manufacturers to expand their business volume. Thus, in Covid-19 period, there was a place in the sector for recruitment. New countries were added to countries such as Iraq, Iran, Greece and Azerbaijan, which were exported before the pandemic. turkey shipments have trouble meeting took certain measures to avoid supply problems in pandemic. Customs Duty has been reduced to 0 in the export of bulk ethyl alcohol to be used in the production of cologne and disinfectants. This provided maximum capacity and profit.
3.1.Supply Chain and Demand/Supply
Demand, which was quite sufficient before the pandemic, increased significantly after the pandemic. The use of disinfectants, which have become almost a necessity, increased the demands to 3-4 times. As a result of this demand and supply coming in the first weeks of the pandemic, producers went to increase their production capacity.Another advantage for manufacturers was that the supply chain, which was broken with pandemic, did not break in the export of health supplies. The 10% customs duty raised by the government was an opportunity to close the gap for producers who did not raise prices.
Disinfectant manufacturers, which give priority to hospitals, started to meet the demands of the people thanks to their stock. Disinfectant manufacturers, which meet the supply from pharmacies and even supermarkets with mass production, increased the supply of ethyl alcohol. 3 months after the start of the pandemic process, rapidly increasing supplies are starting to balance.Price increases due to supply and demand imbalances were also reduced by government regulations. However, in Covid-19, second wave suspicion may increase again in the supply of ethyl alcohol. Analysts, who foresee that demand for medical supplies will continue even if the demand decreases for the next 2 years, adds that demand and supply will not decrease to the levels before Pandemic.
In addition, in order to ensure the security of the ethyl alcohol supply, the government abolished the obligation to add ethyl alcohol to the gasoline. Thus, it is ensured that the producers can meet the supply.
In the Covid-19 period, the producers, the priority of which was the domestic market, had to grow in foreign markets after meeting the supply. As seen in Table 4, we export undenatured ethyl alcohol to Iran and Islamic States with 36%, but the number of countries increased with pandemics.Many European countries have been added to list.Countries that do not produce molasses (produced from sugar beet), especially raw materials, and countries with insufficient workforce had to import ethyl alcohol. This provided an opportunity for Turkish manufacturers with sufficient capacity and hammed. For many countries, primarily Italy and other countries that supplied products from the domestic producer which in Turkey,sotha producers expanded their export volume. However, with the pandemic taking a long time and losing its effect, it reduces the need for instant alcohol. Also the countries that survived the first wave are starting production.Thats why demand will decrease and target market change.
4.Suggestions and Recommendations
Cassava, one of the ingredients of ethyl alcohol, grows in the tropical parts of the USA. After this COVID-19, the USA holds the material in this case. The states are working hard to get ethyl alcohol, like all other countries. When we look at the data, the USA is already at number one with sales of 1.386.847 in the export of ethyl alcohol. Although Brazil is in the second place, commercial sales decreased by 2% in the first quarter of 2020 due to the economic slowdown caused by corona virus in Brazil.
The question is how Turkey get benefit from this crisis? In Turkey,the medical sector’s need for ethyl alcohol is provided through bioethanol produced from molasses in sugar factories. Raw material import problem is solved in this way. It is a very important event that it suspends the obligation to mix 3 percent ethanol into gasoline for 3 months to meet the ethanol requirement used in disinfectant and cologne production. Bioethanol is used in 3 percent to raise octane in fuel and gasoline, the difference is used in the medical sector.
In Turkey, Tezkim,KonyaSeker, Turkey Sugar Factories, Amasya Sugar Factory and Turkseker major producers of ethyl alcohol. In addition, Eskişehir Sugar Factory was reopened for support purposes. They accelerated the production line during the pandemic period and met the supply. Despite the supply-demand imbalance, they did not increase their prices during the difficult pandemic period. However, the state has abolished the customs tax to facilitate exports. Thus, both the supply chain has not been disrupted and growth opportunities have been opened for these factories. Covid-19 2nd wave expectation prevented the demand from decreasing suddenly. However, this process being temporary indicates that the investments made and their profits are temporary. If the second wave does not take place, companies must stop mass production and maintain their place in the domestic market.